China's role in the current financial crisis

China’s Role in the Financial Crisis - an insider’s perspective

Last week, our friend and colleague from Beijing, Dr Xisu Wang, visited Australia and gave a series of briefings, presentations and speeches in Sydney, Melbourne and the Gold Coast. His topic, "An insider’s perspective on China’s role in the current financial crisis", was of great interest and relevance to Australia’s investment community and, knowing the importance of China as a driver of global economic growth in 2009, we have published a summary of his key observations in this blog:

“When the world is asking what China can do to help the world economy out of the current financial crisis, China’s answer is stay focused on the development of its domestic economy.

The rationale behind this approach is two-fold:

* Its economy is still small by global standards (no more than 5% of the world’s total GDP) while the G7 countries currently make up over 50% of the world’s GDP. As a result, it is not in a position to play a decisive role in financial terms.

* With the world in panic, China needs to maintain its steady growth to boost confidence and contribute to global GDP.

China’s economy is already experiencing a slow-down. At first it was a planned effort to avoid the overheating of the economy. Then, the financial crisis and the subsequent drop of demand from the west has accelerated its slowdown. Now the Government is trying to maintain growth and prevent it from slowing too fast by easing money supply, increasing liquidity to activate the sluggish real estate market, expedite credit loans to small and medium-sized enterprises, and adjust tax rebates to assist export-oriented companies. It has also decided to increase investment in infrastructure (such as railroads, airports, highways, clean power stations, etc. ) and civil welfare projects such as the south-north water diversion. The railroads alone are budgeted for expenditure of over 2 trillion RMB, which will not only create millions of jobs but also speed up related industries.

The impact of the financial crisis has not been as strongly felt in China as in the west, mainly because China’s banks mainly serve domestic clients and had limited exposure to troubled financial and capital markets overseas. China’s USD1.5 trillion foreign exchange reserve and its national saving rate at close to 50% is expected to be more than sufficient to ride the current crisis.

What has been hit the hardest so far are exports. Thousands of companies, with a dependency on western markets are now losing money, laying off people or even closing down. But it must be remembered that China’s export of products and services contributes less than 15% to its GDP, and will have only a limited impact on future GDP growth. Though the loss in export will not bring about a recession, China is taking it very seriously. The challenge is more on the people and/or unemployment side rather than business side. There are cases of businesses disappearing overnight, leaving behind thousands of employees without work. The local governments have provided legal and financial assistance, which so far has produced a soothing and calming effect on the nation. Emotional stability and confidence is highly called for in a situation like this, and the Chinese Government is well aware of their priorities and responsibilities.

To keep the nation calm, the local mass media is playing a unique role. China’s newspapers and TV programs are sending out strong messages about the crisis and cautioning businesses and people to brace for some tough years. On the other hand, they are reassuring people about the strong fundamentals of the national economy and report at great lengths the measures being taken to minimise the affect on our economy. One may recall that when the stocks rose dramatically between 2005-2007, the media pleaded with people to exercise caution by repeatedly (and unwelcomingly) reminding everyone not to lose sight of the risks of investing at such high levels. Unlike in western countries, the Chinese media have played an important role in staying focused on the big picture, rather than short term movements in markets.

It is true that the Chinese nation is full of confidence. When travelling overseas, I am often approached with the question: “Is China able to sustain the growth?” Inside China, people never ask this question because nobody is in any doubt about China’s longer term potential. In fact, they constantly criticise the government for not moving faster with policies that stimulate and encourage faster growth.

China will continue to grow and needs to grow. China’s growth is driven by the desire of its rural population (700 million people who live on land and make A$800 a year on average) to improve their standard of living (about 80 million of them are still under the poverty line) and move from the country to the cities. Urbanisation and industrialisation seems the only way out of poverty for them. China has set it as its objective to double their income in 12 years. China will have to grow at its current pace for many decades yet before it reaches the GDP per capita experienced in western countries.

China is able to sustain the growth because this growth is planned, orchestrated, and progressive by a strong, effective and stable Government. China, neither a democracy nor a dictatorship, has adopted a political system which works well for a population of 1.3bn people. The model is best described as “Corporate China”, which says a lot about the working of the country.

A powerful and centralised government fits with the Chinese notion of “the nation as one big family”. Corporate China is led by a government that has demonstrated strong leadership. It has set a clear mission, objectives, and strategies for the country at its different stages of development, and has won the consensus and support of the nation. Whilst people in government have changed from time to time, the guiding principals have remained consistent over past decades. This has ensured a commitment to long-term strategic development and planning.

China has numerous problems as its growth is achieved through “reform”. Change is never easy; particularly for a nation of 1.3 billion people. Challenges and problems are expected and, in a way, China is moving forward by solving these problems one by one.

One reason that I am confident of China’s long term potential is that we are a “learning nation”. China has learned numerous things from the west in transforming its planned economy to a market economy. While preserving the best we have, China is absorbing the best practices developed in the west and learning from its mistakes, such as those revealed by this financial crisis.

China is unfolding an educational campaign called the “scientific concept of development", which proposes development in all political, economical, social and cultural spheres, and a balance between:
*growth and environment protection
*investment, export, and domestic consumption
*urban and rural regions
*long term and short term policies

Coincidentally, the financial crisis has reinforced this message. What China has learned from the current mess is the need to maintain a balance between free market forces and supervision, between spending and saving, between the “real economy”, (e.g wealth creation, manufacturing and distribution) and the “fictitious economy” (e.g. trading in financial and real estate markets).

China is on a long term growth path to becoming the world’s largest economy. Much of China’s growth and development is planned and predicted and the current financial crisis, whilst distracting and worse than anticipated, will allow the economy to slow to more sustainable and comfortable levels. Investors in China’s growth story, whether investing in Australian resource companies or in global emerging markets, should remain as patient, strong and committed to the longer term big picture as the Chinese Government itself. America’s Warren Buffett recently said in response to the global financial crisis, “what we are seeing is the transfer of wealth from the impatient to the patient!!” This exactly sums up the Chinese view on the current financial crisis!”

Before Xisu left Australia, I conducted a short 5 minute interview with him, which can be viewed on youtube. Please go to: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVnYhTBNJJs to download and view.

Best wishes

David Thomas

Follow the Money

Follow the Money!

Now here’s an historic photograph for you to reflect on!

Taken in Sao Paolo last week at the Group of 20 finance ministers and showing the four leaders of the BRIC countries (from left to right: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India, President Dmitry Medvedev of Russia, President Hu Jintao of China and President Lula da Silva of Brazil) at the end of their meeting to plan their response to the global financial crisis, it shows a united group of leaders ready to play their part in this week’s G20 summit in Washington.

If you need any more evidence to convince you that the world has significantly changed in the last few months, then look no further than this photograph. The BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) countries, an idea put forward by Jim O’Neill, the Head of Economic Research at Goldman Sachs (and sometimes referred to as “a dream” or even “a marketing gimmick” by some sceptics) now represent a significant and irresistible force in geo-politics and the new global economy.

Between them they represent:
* 42% of the world’s population
* Over 30% of global growth (and rising rapidly)
* US$2.5 trillion in foreign reserves
* Over US$3 trillion in consumer expenditure
* Nearly 100% of the world’s chances of surviving the current financial crisis!

Within days of this photograph being taken, China announced its US$586 billion stimulus package, an investment in global growth which dwarfs anything we’ve seen from the developed world so far, makes a mockery of the US response to their own economic crisis, and is the largest single contribution to global growth ever seen. And no doubt there will be more to come!

The “powerful” G7 countries (made up of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and Canada) which are now all in recession, have a lot to do to remain relevant as a geo-political, economic and industrial force in the next few years, and we can only assume that the traditional lines of power and influence will be re-drawn in the next few days in Washington. Expect to see the BRIC Leaders playing a prominent role in the announcements that follow the G20 Summit.

As we’ve often said in the BRIC+ Program, just as Britain grew to dominance in the 1800s during the Industrial Revolution, and the US followed in the 1900s, this century will see the BRIC countries emerge to become dominant economic players. The pace at which this has happened is beyond anyone’s wildest imagination, and you will only see further acceleration in the coming weeks and months.

So, my challenge to you is this – become as familiar with the BRIC countries as you are with the US, UK and Europe. Its not too late to play a part in the new world that we now live in. But the risk is that you will play it too safe!

We are currently taking bookings from individuals, companies and associations looking to learn more about the BRIC countries via short one hour presentations and/or half day interactive workshops. There are a few dates available between now and February 2009, so take advantage of the opportunity to re-focus your business planning for next year by contacting support@thinkglobal.com.au.

Think China!

Think China!

I'm sure you'll agree that, if there's a recurring theme coming out of all sides of politics, economics, business and the media in the current financial crisis, it is that China really matters, right now! It mattered before (when we were all asleep!), it will continue to matter in the future (when the dust eventually settles) but, for the world's economic engine to keep turning over the next few months, China's ability to maintain and grow productivity, consumption and investment is now critical to everyone!

In recent weeks, since returning from Russia, I have been talking to friends and colleagues in China to understand and appreciate the factors, drivers and trends that will influence China's economy in the short term. The common view appears to be:

• China's economy is expected to slow from its 2007 GDP growth rate of 11.9% to a more sustainable rate of between 8% and 9% per annum but, far from being a disaster, this is actually regarded as a good thing, allowing for inefficient factories to be closed down, inflation to be brought under control and a more stable and accessible business and investment environment for both local and foreign players. In fact, the Chinese Government has, for some time, been trying to stop the economy from over-heating. Whilst not exactly planned, this slowdown is seen to be positive, beneficial and good for the long term
• China's stockmarkets (including Hong Kong) have been hit hard by the global financial crisis and now display valuations which are highly attractive to long term investors. Most importantly, China's commitment to utilise its massive reserves to a long term program of social and economic infrastructure (driven by the long term need to urbanise up to 700 million people in future years) is good news for the resources sector and will ensure that China's contribution to global GDP will continue to grow in 2009 and beyond. Long term investors will do well to retain their current positions and look for value in the current downturn
• China's Government understands, appreciates and accepts the role it has to play in working with Foreign Governments, banks and policy-makers to find solutions to the current financial crisis. The recent Asia-Europe Summit hosted in Beijing on 24th October was the first of many opportunities in which China will play a central role in concerted international action. The next will be at the G20 meeting in Washington on 15th November and surely the Anglo Saxon world will now have no option but to include China (and other emerging countries with strong fundamentals) in future discussions about global economic policy. That might be a good thing!

But let me leave all of the above to the numerous economic, political and business commentators who are certainly not short of views on how, whether, why and when China will lead us out of this mess, and what that means for the future of the world.

What I'd like to focus on is how everyone, now more than ever, must engage with China in business, investment and trade. Here follows four areas which present opportunities for you all to consider:

1. Follow the money
In response to an economic slowdown or recession in the US and other developed countries, China will now move from an export orientated economy to one that consumes most of what it produces. Markets of all types, shapes and sizes are growing in China and not elsewhere. Where else will you find a market on a steep growth trajectory with rising consumer demand?

The strategy now must be to move away from the first tier cities of Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen and start researching, networking and entering large second and even third tier cities with a strong value proposition and a commitment to long term success. Don't forget that there are over 200 cities in China with populations of over 1 million people. I recently heard of a large UK retailer whose sole China strategy is to target only one suburb of Shanghai because of its attractive demographics (young professional families), high spending power and extraordinary size (a population of 1.1m people living in the Shanghai suburb of Wujiaochang). It pays to do your research!

2. Reduce costs
China is, and continues to be, a great source of lower (not necessarily the "lowest") cost goods and services. Prices have been rising in Tier one cities but there has been a concerted effort by Government to move economic activity to new regional centres. For example, I heard today of a new technology park, specialising in incubating new environmental technologies being created in Tianjin (with 20 others planned in other cities) and there are many more plans to stimulate new economic activity throughout the country.

The conclusion is clear - don't think of China as one country. It's a massive network of diverse, autonomous and highly populous cities and regions. Before you start looking for even lower cost centres in other countries (Vietnam is the name that comes up the most) do your comparisons with China's second and third tier cities before you make your decision to ignore China. You may be surprised!

3. China goes global
For some time now, the Chinese Government has been encouraging local companies to "Think Global" and have offered cash grants, preferential loans, subsidies and even Government sponsored delegations to speed up the process. The recent financial crisis has only accelerated this process with my China based friends reporting on increased interest in mergers, acquisitions and investments in foreign companies offering the prospect of new markets and global connections.

Naturally, the largest companies lead the way (Lenovo's acquisition of IBM computers in late 2004 was the first high profile Chinese global play) but the SMEs will follow and offer significant potential for foreign companies seeking to take advantage of China's new role as a global investor. Why not put your hand up to potential Chinese suitors?

4. Innovation and creativity
The next phase in China's extraordinary transformation, which is now well under way, is its move into the higher end, creative, innovative and value adding technology, manufacturing and business solutions. There is a vast amount of creative and entrepreneurial energy in China looking for new outlets and this presents many opportunities for foreign companies and investors to participate on many levels. And the good news is that, in the current climate, the entry price is much lower than it was only 3 months ago!

As I'm often reminded, it's at times like this that new fortunes are made - don't hold back now!

How we can help
We have many friends, contacts and business associates operating in China and working with foreign companies looking for opportunities in all of the above areas. They have local clients, capabilities, connections and the resources to introduce you to many of China's most proactive and influential players. They can also assist with on-the-ground research, strategic planning and market entry. Please contact me at davidthomas@thinkglobal.com.au if you would like me to facilitate an introduction for you.

Please consider:
My friend and colleague, Dr Xisu Wang from Beijing (speaker, trainer, Thought Leader and author of China's first book on leadership practice) will be back in Australia from 21st to 28th November, including an appearance with me at this year's FPA Conference on the Gold Coast on Friday 21st November. There will be many opportunities to hear him speak on China from an insider's perspective during his visit and I encourage you all to meet him. Please contact us at support@thinkglobal.com.au if you'd like to hear him speak while he is here and we'll invite you to one of our events in Melbourne or Sydney.

Best wishes

David Thomas